Market Update [April 12] – Oil and gas stocks outperform, VN-Index falls over 3 points
On Friday (April 12th), although oil and gas stocks outperformed the market, however, the VN-Index still closed lower due to high selling pressure in bluechip stocks such as VIC, VHM, VCB, SAB, BID, TCB and BVH. By the closing bell, the VN-Index lost 3.05 points (-0.31%) to close at 982.90. Trading volume was over 150 million shares, worth VND3,200 billion. Breadth was negative, with losers topping gainers 153 to 147. Foreign investors net bought VND34 billion on the HSX, mainly in VRE and VIC.
In view of technical analysis, the VN-Index’s chart shows a small red candlestick dwelled below the MA(5), MA(10), MA(14) and MA(20), which is a sign of negativity. Therefore, we believe that, in a negative scenario, the VN-Index will test the nearest support range of 970 – 980, the next support range is forecast at 950 – 960. In a positive scenario, if the index rebounds, the nearest resistance range of VN-Index will be forecast at 990 – 1,000, at which investors can sell a part of the existing short-term portfolio.
We recommend investors avoid bottom fishing, while keeping a low stock proportion in order to minimize risks if the support level of 950 – 960 continues to be broken. Based on Kelly formula, the recommended proportion of the portfolio is 90% cash/ 10% stocks. Tail risks include black swan events.
Please see the attached file for more details.